Kiel Canal: how much trade passes through (2024 estimate)

Share of their seaborne trade that crosses the chokepoint

1. Finland$16 billion · 15.6%
2. Germany$172.5 billion · 13.8%
3. Lithuania$6.2 billion · 11.9%
4. Latvia$3 billion · 11.8%
5. Belarus$1.6 billion · 9.9%
6. Estonia$2.8 billion · 9.8%
7. Sweden$18 billion · 7.6%
8. Czechia$6.9 billion · 4%
9. Poland$14.1 billion · 3.6%
10. Hungary$5.5 billion · 3.5%
11. Slovakia$4.1 billion · 3.4%
12. Chad$122 million · 2.8%
13. Slovenia$1.4 billion · 2.6%
14. Romania$3.9 billion · 2.4%
15. North Macedonia$218 million · 2.1%
16. Serbia$945 million · 2%
17. Croatia$835 million · 2%
18. Italy$14.1 billion · 1.9%
19. Bosnia and Herzegovina$334 million · 1.9%
20. Bulgaria$1 billion · 1.6%

The largest by value through it

1. Germany$172.5 billion · 13.8%
2. China$18.7 billion · 0.55%
3. Sweden$18 billion · 7.6%
4. Finland$16 billion · 15.6%
5. Poland$14.1 billion · 3.6%
6. Italy$14.1 billion · 1.9%
7. Spain$8.8 billion · 1.5%
8. United Kingdom$8.7 billion · 1.3%
9. Czechia$6.9 billion · 4%
10. Lithuania$6.2 billion · 11.9%

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

1. Cars$20.8 billion · 11.6%
2. Auto parts$9 billion · 5%
3. Refined petroleum$6.8 billion · 3.8%
4. Crude petroleum$3.3 billion · 1.8%
5. Batteries$2.7 billion · 1.5%
6. Cables and wire$2 billion · 1.1%
7. Trucks$2 billion · 1.1%
8. Other plastic articles$1.8 billion · 1%
9. Other industrial machines$1.6 billion · 0.87%
10. Engine parts$1.5 billion · 0.85%

• China–Germany: +262 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; the Suez Canal; the Strait of Gibraltar; and the Strait of Dover
• Germany–Sweden: +230 nautical miles, ≈ 0.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Øresund
• Germany–Finland: +230 nautical miles, ≈ 0.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Øresund
• Germany–Poland: +250 nautical miles, ≈ 0.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Øresund
• Germany–Italy: +260 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Dover and the Strait of Gibraltar
• Germany–Spain: +260 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Dover
• Germany–United Kingdom: +259 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots
• Germany–Hungary: +260 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Dover and the Strait of Gibraltar
• Germany–Lithuania: +230 nautical miles, ≈ 0.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Øresund
• Germany–Turkey: +260 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Dover, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Dardanelles

Estimated sailing detour, without costs, waiting or port capacity.

Estimated value through the chokepoint and the share of each pair’s seaborne trade that crosses it.

1. China–Germany$18.7 billion · 12%
2. Germany–Sweden$15.8 billion · 47.7%
3. Germany–Finland$14.6 billion · 88%
4. Germany–Poland$14.1 billion · 88%
5. Germany–Italy$14.1 billion · 12%
6. Germany–Spain$8.8 billion · 12%
7. Germany–United Kingdom$8.7 billion · 12%
8. Germany–Hungary$5.5 billion · 12%
9. Germany–Lithuania$5.4 billion · 88%
10. Germany–Turkey$5.2 billion · 12%

The other chokepoints

• Strait of Malacca and Singapore
• Strait of Dover
• Strait of Gibraltar
• Cape of Good Hope
• Panama Canal
• Turkish Straits
• Øresund
• Strait of Hormuz
• Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
• Suez Canal

Sources and licenses

• CEPII BACI · Licence Ouverte Etalab 2.0
• World Bank, Global Shipping Traffic Density · CC BY 4.0 (route network derived by this site)
• World Port Index (NGA) · Public domain (US Government work)
• Natural Earth · Public domain
• Kummu et al., gridded GDP · CC BY 4.0 (split between ports done by this site)

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade; seaborne trade is 54% of world trade by value. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

The Kiel figure is the most sensitive to how trade is split between ports: it depends on how much of Germany’s trade is assigned to its Baltic ports, such as Rostock.