Bab-el-Mandeb Strait: how much trade passes through (2024 estimate)

Share of their seaborne trade that crosses the chokepoint

1. Sudan$3 billion · 52%
2. Jordan$10.6 billion · 46.1%
3. Saudi Arabia$123.7 billion · 28.4%
4. Yemen$1.4 billion · 17.7%
5. Ethiopia$860 million · 11.8%
6. Egypt$12.5 billion · 9.6%
7. Somalia$318 million · 9.3%
8. India$61 billion · 8.5%
9. Uzbekistan$2.7 billion · 7.8%
10. Djibouti$534 million · 7.8%
11. Pakistan$5.5 billion · 7.7%
12. Afghanistan$169 million · 7.7%
13. Russia$21.9 billion · 7.6%
14. Belarus$1.2 billion · 7.6%
15. Bangladesh$7.8 billion · 7.4%
16. Laos$143 million · 7.3%
17. Mauritania$569 million · 7.1%
18. Mali$187 million · 6.3%
19. Malta$983 million · 6.3%
20. Gambia$113 million · 6.2%

The largest by value through it

1. China$179.5 billion · 5.3%
2. Saudi Arabia$123.7 billion · 28.4%
3. India$61 billion · 8.5%
4. Germany$45.2 billion · 3.6%
5. South Korea$35.5 billion · 4.2%
6. Japan$32 billion · 3.5%
7. United States$29 billion · 1.4%
8. United Kingdom$24.5 billion · 3.6%
9. Russia$21.9 billion · 7.6%
10. France$21 billion · 3.5%

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

1. Crude petroleum$80.6 billion · 17.6%
2. Cars$27.1 billion · 5.9%
3. Refined petroleum$19.6 billion · 4.3%
4. Auto parts$8 billion · 1.7%
5. Batteries$6.1 billion · 1.3%
6. Natural gas and LPG$4.9 billion · 1.1%
7. Computer and office machine parts$4.9 billion · 1.1%
8. Diodes, transistors and solar cells$4.2 billion · 0.9%
9. Coal$4 billion · 0.86%
10. Transformers and power supplies$3.9 billion · 0.86%

• China–Germany: +3,514 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Dover
• China–United Kingdom: +3,515 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; and the Cape of Good Hope
• China–France: +4,862 nautical miles, ≈ 14.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
• India–United States: +3,350 nautical miles, ≈ 10 days more at 14 knots, via the Cape of Good Hope
• India–Russia: +7,812 nautical miles, ≈ 23.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Cape of Good Hope, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dardanelles and the Bosporus
• China–Netherlands: +3,515 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Dover
• China–Poland: +3,514 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; the Strait of Dover; and the Øresund
• China–Spain: +4,389 nautical miles, ≈ 13 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
• China–Italy: +5,165 nautical miles, ≈ 15.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
• China–Turkey: +6,731 nautical miles, ≈ 20 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; the Strait of Gibraltar; and the Dardanelles

Estimated sailing detour, without costs, waiting or port capacity.

Estimated value through the chokepoint and the share of each pair’s seaborne trade that crosses it.

1. China–Saudi Arabia$44.2 billion · 43.4%
2. China–Germany$23.4 billion · 15%
3. Japan–Saudi Arabia$16.1 billion · 43.4%
4. India–Saudi Arabia$16 billion · 39.9%
5. South Korea–Saudi Arabia$16 billion · 43.4%
6. China–United Kingdom$12.2 billion · 15%
7. China–France$9.7 billion · 15%
8. India–United States$8.5 billion · 11.3%
9. India–Russia$7.5 billion · 11%
10. China–Netherlands$7.4 billion · 15%

The other chokepoints

• Strait of Malacca and Singapore
• Strait of Dover
• Strait of Gibraltar
• Cape of Good Hope
• Panama Canal
• Turkish Straits
• Øresund
• Strait of Hormuz
• Suez Canal
• Kiel Canal

Sources and licenses

• CEPII BACI · Licence Ouverte Etalab 2.0
• World Bank, Global Shipping Traffic Density · CC BY 4.0 (route network derived by this site)
• World Port Index (NGA) · Public domain (US Government work)
• Natural Earth · Public domain
• Kummu et al., gridded GDP · CC BY 4.0 (split between ports done by this site)

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade; seaborne trade is 54% of world trade by value. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.