Summary
- Estimated value
- $471.6billion
- Of seaborne trade
- 3.9%
- Rank among the eleven chokepoints
- 9th
Trend of the estimated value
Estimated value per year
The estimated value through the Suez Canal fell 74% between 2019 and 2024
Value in USD billions
- Suez Canal 472
Source: CEPII BACI
Show the numbers
| Year | Estimated value | Of seaborne trade |
|---|---|---|
| 1995 | $434.4 billion | 16% |
| 1996 | $470.7 billion | 16.2% |
| 1997 | $490.3 billion | 16.2% |
| 1998 | $467.3 billion | 16.1% |
| 1999 | $482.8 billion | 16.1% |
| 2000 | $529.2 billion | 16.1% |
| 2001 | $529.9 billion | 16.3% |
| 2002 | $567.2 billion | 16.4% |
| 2003 | $665.8 billion | 16.6% |
| 2004 | $826.9 billion | 16.9% |
| 2005 | $962 billion | 17% |
| 2006 | $1.1 trillion | 16.8% |
| 2007 | $1.3 trillion | 17.4% |
| 2008 | $1.6 trillion | 17.6% |
| 2009 | $1.2 trillion | 17.9% |
| 2010 | $1.5 trillion | 17.7% |
| 2011 | $1.8 trillion | 17.7% |
| 2012 | $1.8 trillion | 17.5% |
| 2013 | $1.8 trillion | 17.4% |
| 2014 | $1.8 trillion | 17.7% |
| 2015 | $1.6 trillion | 17.9% |
| 2016 | $1.5 trillion | 18.2% |
| 2017 | $1.7 trillion | 18.1% |
| 2018 | $1.8 trillion | 17.9% |
| 2019 | $1.8 trillion | 18.1% |
| 2020 | $1.6 trillion | 18.1% |
| 2021 | $2.1 trillion | 18.1% |
| 2022 | $2.4 trillion | 18.2% |
| 2023 | $2.3 trillion | 18.3% |
| 2024 | $471.6 billion | 3.9% |
Since January 2024 most container ships go around Africa; our model assumes 15% still goes through Suez (also for bulk carriers and tankers, which diverted less).
The routes carrying the most value through the chokepoint
Countries that depend on it most
Share of their seaborne trade that crosses the chokepoint
The largest by value through it
What crosses it
The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.
If it closes
- China–Germany: +3,514 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Dover
- China–United Kingdom: +3,515 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; and the Cape of Good Hope
- China–France: +4,862 nautical miles, ≈ 14.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
- India–United States: +3,350 nautical miles, ≈ 10 days more at 14 knots, via the Cape of Good Hope
- India–Russia: +7,812 nautical miles, ≈ 23.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Cape of Good Hope, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dardanelles and the Bosporus
- China–Netherlands: +3,515 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Dover
- China–Poland: +3,514 nautical miles, ≈ 10.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; the Strait of Dover; and the Øresund
- China–Spain: +4,389 nautical miles, ≈ 13 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
- China–Italy: +5,165 nautical miles, ≈ 15.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; and the Strait of Gibraltar
- China–Turkey: +6,731 nautical miles, ≈ 20 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Cape of Good Hope; the Strait of Gibraltar; and the Dardanelles
Estimated sailing detour, without costs, waiting or port capacity.
Country pairs that cross it
Estimated value through the chokepoint and the share of each pair’s seaborne trade that crosses it.
Compare with
Sources and method
Sources and licenses
- CEPII BACI · Licence Ouverte Etalab 2.0
- World Bank, Global Shipping Traffic Density · CC BY 4.0 (route network derived by this site)
- World Port Index (NGA) · Public domain (US Government work)
- Natural Earth · Public domain
- Kummu et al., gridded GDP · CC BY 4.0 (split between ports done by this site)
Methodology
We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade; seaborne trade is 54% of world trade by value. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.