globaltraffic.earth

Cape of Good Hope: how much trade passes through (2024 estimate)

In 2024, an estimated $2.3 trillion of trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 18.9% of seaborne trade. Compared with 2019, the estimate rose 474%. The countries that depend on it most are Liberia (86%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (83%) and Guinea (81%), by the share of their seaborne trade that crosses it.

Summary

Estimated value
$2.3trillion
Of seaborne trade
18.9%
Rank among the eleven chokepoints
4th

Trend of the estimated value

Estimated value per year

The estimated value through the Cape of Good Hope rose 474% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Cape of Good Hope 2,309

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf seaborne trade
1995$52.2 billion1.9%
1996$54.2 billion1.9%
1997$59.6 billion2%
1998$55.4 billion1.9%
1999$54.8 billion1.8%
2000$58.6 billion1.8%
2001$62.5 billion1.9%
2002$67.6 billion2%
2003$78 billion2%
2004$107 billion2.2%
2005$125.8 billion2.2%
2006$165.3 billion2.5%
2007$203.7 billion2.7%
2008$274.7 billion3%
2009$220.3 billion3.3%
2010$307.1 billion3.7%
2011$387.5 billion3.8%
2012$404.6 billion4%
2013$414.7 billion4.1%
2014$417.8 billion4.1%
2015$329.4 billion3.8%
2016$291.3 billion3.5%
2017$343.4 billion3.7%
2018$400.5 billion3.9%
2019$402 billion4%
2020$373.8 billion4.2%
2021$499 billion4.4%
2022$579.5 billion4.3%
2023$554.9 billion4.5%
2024$2.3 trillion18.9%

Since January 2024 most container ships go around Africa; our model assumes 15% still goes through Suez (also for bulk carriers and tankers, which diverted less).

The routes carrying the most value through the chokepoint

Estimated sea routes from this site’s network; thickness follows value.

Countries that depend on it most

Share of their seaborne trade that crosses the chokepoint

  1. Liberia$19.2 billion · 86.1%
  2. Democratic Republic of the Congo$30.9 billion · 82.7%
  3. Guinea$13.2 billion · 80.7%
  4. Republic of the Congo$8.7 billion · 69.6%
  5. Niger$1.6 billion · 67.9%
  6. Sierra Leone$2.2 billion · 66.7%
  7. Angola$30.9 billion · 65.1%
  8. Gabon$6.5 billion · 62%
  9. Ghana$15.6 billion · 56.4%
  10. Togo$5.7 billion · 56.3%
  11. Equatorial Guinea$2.8 billion · 54.2%
  12. Benin$2.8 billion · 53.3%
  13. Cameroon$7.4 billion · 52.5%
  14. Brazil$263.3 billion · 51.9%
  15. Paraguay$6.6 billion · 51.3%
  16. Burkina Faso$2.4 billion · 45.9%
  17. Uzbekistan$15.4 billion · 44%
  18. Belarus$7 billion · 43%
  19. Argentina$35.5 billion · 42.6%
  20. Namibia$3.1 billion · 42.5%

The largest by value through it

  1. China$1 trillion · 30.2%
  2. Germany$265.2 billion · 21.1%
  3. India$263.5 billion · 36.7%
  4. Brazil$263.3 billion · 51.9%
  5. United States$173.5 billion · 8.1%
  6. United Kingdom$142.5 billion · 20.9%
  7. South Korea$126.9 billion · 15.1%
  8. Russia$120.7 billion · 42%
  9. France$119.9 billion · 20.1%
  10. Netherlands$105.1 billion · 16.4%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Crude petroleum$155.4 billion · 6.7%
  2. Cars$122 billion · 5.3%
  3. Refined petroleum$100.3 billion · 4.4%
  4. Auto parts$48.1 billion · 2.1%
  5. Soybeans$42 billion · 1.8%
  6. Iron ore$35.9 billion · 1.6%
  7. Batteries$33.5 billion · 1.5%
  8. Cargo and cruise ships$31.2 billion · 1.4%
  9. Computer and office machine parts$28.1 billion · 1.2%
  10. Natural gas and LPG$26.2 billion · 1.1%

If it closes

In 2024 it carries so much because ships avoiding the Red Sea and Suez sail around Africa: it is an effect of those diversions, according to our model.

Country pairs that cross it

Estimated value through the chokepoint and the share of each pair’s seaborne trade that crosses it.

  1. Brazil–China$163.5 billion · 100%
  2. China–Germany$132.4 billion · 85%
  3. China–United Kingdom$69 billion · 85%
  4. China–France$55.1 billion · 85%
  5. India–United States$48 billion · 63.8%
  6. India–Russia$42.7 billion · 62.1%
  7. China–Netherlands$41.8 billion · 85%
  8. China–Poland$39.5 billion · 85%
  9. China–Spain$38.8 billion · 85%
  10. China–Italy$36.5 billion · 85%

Compare with

The other chokepoints

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade; seaborne trade is 54% of world trade by value. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints