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Strait of Dover: how much trade passes through (2024 estimate)

In 2024, an estimated $2.4 trillion of trade passed through the Strait of Dover, 19.9% of seaborne trade. Compared with 2019, the estimate rose 19%. The countries that depend on it most are Belarus (83%), Germany (78%) and Switzerland (74%), by the share of their seaborne trade that crosses it.

Summary

Estimated value
$2.4trillion
Of seaborne trade
19.9%
Rank among the eleven chokepoints
2nd

Trend of the estimated value

Estimated value per year

The estimated value through the Strait of Dover rose 19% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Strait of Dover 2,431

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf seaborne trade
1995$612 billion22.5%
1996$651 billion22.4%
1997$685 billion22.7%
1998$690.6 billion23.9%
1999$697.8 billion23.3%
2000$731.1 billion22.2%
2001$737.3 billion22.7%
2002$796.6 billion23%
2003$924.2 billion23.1%
2004$1.1 trillion22.6%
2005$1.3 trillion22.1%
2006$1.5 trillion21.9%
2007$1.7 trillion22.2%
2008$1.9 trillion21.2%
2009$1.5 trillion21.7%
2010$1.7 trillion20.1%
2011$2 trillion19.9%
2012$1.9 trillion19.1%
2013$2 trillion19.4%
2014$2 trillion19.9%
2015$1.8 trillion20.3%
2016$1.7 trillion20.9%
2017$1.9 trillion20.7%
2018$2.1 trillion20.4%
2019$2.1 trillion20.6%
2020$1.9 trillion21.3%
2021$2.3 trillion20.5%
2022$2.6 trillion19.6%
2023$2.5 trillion20.2%
2024$2.4 trillion19.9%

The routes carrying the most value through the chokepoint

Estimated sea routes from this site’s network; thickness follows value.

Countries that depend on it most

Share of their seaborne trade that crosses the chokepoint

  1. Belarus$13.6 billion · 83.3%
  2. Germany$982 billion · 78.3%
  3. Switzerland$62.8 billion · 74.3%
  4. Czechia$119.6 billion · 70%
  5. Netherlands$399.1 billion · 62.1%
  6. Luxembourg$8.7 billion · 60.9%
  7. Poland$234.9 billion · 59.3%
  8. Belgium$200.7 billion · 58.3%
  9. Hungary$88.8 billion · 56%
  10. Slovenia$24.1 billion · 43.6%
  11. Russia$119.7 billion · 41.7%
  12. Slovakia$48.2 billion · 39.6%
  13. Romania$64.1 billion · 38.9%
  14. Chad$1.6 billion · 37.7%
  15. Denmark$51.1 billion · 36.5%
  16. Serbia$17.2 billion · 36.1%
  17. Lithuania$18.8 billion · 35.8%
  18. Finland$36.5 billion · 35.5%
  19. Italy$251.3 billion · 34.1%
  20. Sweden$80.7 billion · 34%

The largest by value through it

  1. Germany$982 billion · 78.3%
  2. Netherlands$399.1 billion · 62.1%
  3. China$371.6 billion · 11%
  4. Italy$251.3 billion · 34.1%
  5. Poland$234.9 billion · 59.3%
  6. Belgium$200.7 billion · 58.3%
  7. United States$194.4 billion · 9.1%
  8. Spain$165.1 billion · 28.7%
  9. Russia$119.7 billion · 41.7%
  10. Czechia$119.6 billion · 70%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Cars$214.5 billion · 8.8%
  2. Crude petroleum$122.1 billion · 5%
  3. Refined petroleum$96.7 billion · 4%
  4. Auto parts$96.4 billion · 4%
  5. Natural gas and LPG$34.4 billion · 1.4%
  6. Batteries$31.2 billion · 1.3%
  7. Cables and wire$25.3 billion · 1%
  8. Computer and office machine parts$24.6 billion · 1%
  9. Trucks$24.3 billion · 1%
  10. Other plastic articles$20.2 billion · 0.83%

If it closes

  • China–Germany: +533 nautical miles, ≈ 1.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; the Suez Canal; and the Strait of Gibraltar
  • Germany–Italy: +549 nautical miles, ≈ 1.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Gibraltar
  • Germany–United States: +2 nautical miles, less than half a day more at 14 knots
  • Germany–Spain: +599 nautical miles, ≈ 2 days more at 14 knots
  • China–Netherlands: +698 nautical miles, ≈ 2 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; the Suez Canal; and the Strait of Gibraltar
  • Netherlands–United States: +156 nautical miles, less than half a day more at 14 knots
  • China–Poland: +269 nautical miles, ≈ 1 day more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Malacca and Singapore; the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; the Suez Canal; the Strait of Gibraltar; and the Øresund
  • Germany–Hungary: +550 nautical miles, ≈ 1.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Gibraltar
  • Germany–Turkey: +549 nautical miles, ≈ 1.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Gibraltar and the Dardanelles
  • Germany–Slovakia: +550 nautical miles, ≈ 1.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Strait of Gibraltar

Estimated sailing detour, without costs, waiting or port capacity.

Country pairs that cross it

Estimated value through the chokepoint and the share of each pair’s seaborne trade that crosses it.

  1. China–Germany$155.7 billion · 100%
  2. Germany–Italy$117.3 billion · 100%
  3. Germany–United States$108 billion · 88%
  4. Germany–Spain$73.4 billion · 100%
  5. China–Netherlands$49.2 billion · 100%
  6. Netherlands–United States$48.6 billion · 100%
  7. China–Poland$46.4 billion · 100%
  8. Germany–Hungary$46 billion · 100%
  9. Germany–Turkey$43 billion · 100%
  10. Germany–Slovakia$34.5 billion · 100%

Compare with

The other chokepoints

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade; seaborne trade is 54% of world trade by value. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints