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How much of Russia’s trade passes through the Cape of Good Hope?

In 2024, an estimated $120.7 billion of Russia’s trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 42% of its seaborne trade. That is $101.4 billion of exports and $19.3 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are India, China and Turkey.

Summary

Estimated value
$120.7billion
Of its seaborne trade
42%
Exports
$101.4billion
Imports
$19.3billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

Russia’s estimated trade through the Cape of Good Hope rose 3,833% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Russia 121

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$316 million0.4%
1996$435 million0.4%
1997$529 million0.5%
1998$502 million0.6%
1999$535 million0.7%
2000$531 million0.6%
2001$636 million0.7%
2002$812 million0.8%
2003$941 million0.7%
2004$1.1 billion0.6%
2005$1.6 billion0.7%
2006$2 billion0.7%
2007$2.5 billion0.7%
2008$3.5 billion0.8%
2009$2.2 billion0.7%
2010$2.6 billion0.7%
2011$3.1 billion0.6%
2012$3.2 billion0.7%
2013$3.3 billion0.7%
2014$3.6 billion0.7%
2015$2.7 billion0.8%
2016$2.4 billion0.8%
2017$2.8 billion0.8%
2018$3.3 billion0.8%
2019$3.1 billion0.8%
2020$2.8 billion0.9%
2021$4.2 billion0.9%
2022$4 billion0.9%
2023$4.6 billion1.4%
2024$120.7 billion42%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. Russia–India$42.7 billion · 35.4%
  2. Russia–China$23.3 billion · 19.3%
  3. Russia–Turkey$7.7 billion · 6.4%
  4. Russia–South Korea$6.2 billion · 5.1%
  5. Russia–Japan$4.3 billion · 3.6%
  6. Russia–Brazil$3.7 billion · 3%
  7. Russia–Taiwan$3.1 billion · 2.6%
  8. Russia–Singapore$2.7 billion · 2.3%
  9. Russia–Indonesia$2.5 billion · 2%
  10. Russia–Uzbekistan$2.4 billion · 2%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Crude petroleum$34.9 billion · 28.9%
  2. Refined petroleum$17.3 billion · 14.4%
  3. Coal$12.7 billion · 10.5%
  4. Natural gas and LPG$7.9 billion · 6.6%
  5. Wheat$2.6 billion · 2.1%
  6. Sunflower, safflower and cottonseed oil$2 billion · 1.6%
  7. Sawn wood$1.9 billion · 1.6%
  8. Potash fertilizers$1.9 billion · 1.6%
  9. Mixed fertilizers$1.8 billion · 1.5%
  10. Semi-finished steel$1.7 billion · 1.4%

Reference ports

Saint Petersburg (31%), Murmansk (10%), Novorossiysk (32%) and Vladivostok (27%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints