How much of Estonia’s trade passes through the Kiel Canal?

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

1. Estonia–Germany$2.2 billion · 79.1%
2. Estonia–Czechia$589 million · 20.9%

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

1. Cars$642 million · 22.8%
2. Auto parts$64 million · 2.3%
3. Prefabricated buildings$59 million · 2.1%
4. Trucks$53 million · 1.9%
5. Cyclic hydrocarbons$46 million · 1.6%
6. Plywood$42 million · 1.5%
7. Tractors$40 million · 1.4%
8. Cargo and cruise ships$38 million · 1.4%
9. Trailers$32 million · 1.1%
10. Coated flat steel$31 million · 1.1%

• Germany–Estonia: +230 nautical miles, ≈ 0.5 days more at 14 knots, via the Øresund

Estimated sailing detour, without costs, waiting or port capacity.

Tallinn (100%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

• See Kiel Canal
• Estonia trade

Other chokepoints it uses

• Øresund · 50%
• Strait of Dover · 29%
• Strait of Gibraltar · 13%
• Cape of Good Hope · 11%
• Strait of Malacca and Singapore · 10%
• Turkish Straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles) · 5%

Sources and licenses

• CEPII BACI · Licence Ouverte Etalab 2.0
• World Bank, Global Shipping Traffic Density · CC BY 4.0 (route network derived by this site)
• World Port Index (NGA) · Public domain (US Government work)
• Natural Earth · Public domain
• Kummu et al., gridded GDP · CC BY 4.0 (split between ports done by this site)

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

The Kiel figure is the most sensitive to how trade is split between ports: it depends on how much of Germany’s trade is assigned to its Baltic ports, such as Rostock.