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How much of Nigeria’s trade passes through the Cape of Good Hope?

In 2024, an estimated $40.9 billion of Nigeria’s trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 40% of its seaborne trade. That is $19.8 billion of exports and $21.1 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are China, India and Indonesia.

Summary

Estimated value
$40.9billion
Of its seaborne trade
40%
Exports
$19.8billion
Imports
$21.1billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

Nigeria’s estimated trade through the Cape of Good Hope fell 4% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Nigeria 40.9

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$2.6 billion15.6%
1996$4 billion17.4%
1997$4.2 billion18.1%
1998$3.5 billion19.2%
1999$5.8 billion29%
2000$4.7 billion16.3%
2001$5.1 billion16.9%
2002$6.9 billion25%
2003$7.4 billion19.9%
2004$9.3 billion19.9%
2005$9.3 billion15.3%
2006$17.3 billion20.4%
2007$22.5 billion21%
2008$30.5 billion23.2%
2009$24 billion26.7%
2010$34.6 billion27.5%
2011$47.2 billion28.7%
2012$49.9 billion34%
2013$49.7 billion35.7%
2014$59.4 billion40.8%
2015$37.4 billion40.7%
2016$26.9 billion39.8%
2017$31.5 billion39.1%
2018$41.1 billion41.3%
2019$42.5 billion41.9%
2020$40.2 billion46.3%
2021$47.9 billion45.8%
2022$50.8 billion39.7%
2023$39.1 billion35.9%
2024$40.9 billion40%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. Nigeria–China$16.7 billion · 40.7%
  2. Nigeria–India$7.8 billion · 19%
  3. Nigeria–Indonesia$3.1 billion · 7.5%
  4. Nigeria–South Korea$2.3 billion · 5.6%
  5. Nigeria–South Africa$2.2 billion · 5.3%
  6. Nigeria–Malaysia$1.4 billion · 3.5%
  7. Nigeria–United Arab Emirates$1.4 billion · 3.4%
  8. Nigeria–Thailand$1.3 billion · 3.1%
  9. Nigeria–Japan$1.2 billion · 3%
  10. Nigeria–Singapore$742 million · 1.8%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Crude petroleum$10.5 billion · 25.6%
  2. Natural gas and LPG$4.4 billion · 10.7%
  3. Refined petroleum$2.6 billion · 6.3%
  4. Cocoa beans$856 million · 2.1%
  5. Synthetic filament fabric$487 million · 1.2%
  6. Medicines in measured doses or retail packs$462 million · 1.1%
  7. Motorcycles$371 million · 0.91%
  8. Cameras and broadcast equipment$354 million · 0.87%
  9. Auto parts$323 million · 0.79%
  10. New tires$320 million · 0.78%

Reference ports

Lagos (100%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints