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Who does Ukraine rely on?

The largest supplier of Ukraine in 2024 is China, with 19.9% of what Ukraine buys. Its share was 14.6% in 2019 and 1.3% in 1995. 292 of the 902 products Ukraine buys for more than $1 million have a supplier selling more than 50% of what Ukraine buys of that product; in 87, more than 75%. In those products, purchases from each one’s dominant supplier add up to 17.9% of what Ukraine buys.

Summary

Largest supplier: China
19.9%
Concentration (HHI)
785
Products with a supplier above 50%
292
Products with a supplier above 75%
87

Concentration index (HHI): 785 out of 10,000; equivalent to splitting purchases among 13 suppliers of the same size

Trend

Trend in shares

China went from 1.3% to 19.9% of what Ukraine buys

Share (%)

  • China 19.9%
  • Poland 14%
  • Germany 8.1%
  • Turkey 5.5%
  • United States 4.7%

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearLargest supplierShare
1995Germany18.4%
1996Russia44.6%
1997Russia42%
1998Russia42.8%
1999Russia42.3%
2000Russia38.4%
2001Russia33.8%
2002Russia33.6%
2003Russia33.7%
2004Russia36.8%
2005Russia32.2%
2006Russia27.6%
2007Russia25.5%
2008Russia22.8%
2009Russia28.5%
2010Russia35.5%
2011Russia34.8%
2012Russia31.3%
2013Russia29.2%
2014Russia23.8%
2015Russia20.4%
2016Russia15.1%
2017Russia15.7%
2018Russia15.2%
2019China14.6%
2020China14.7%
2021China14.8%
2022China15.2%
2023China16.1%
2024China19.9%

Its suppliers

  1. China$14 billion · 19.9%
  2. Poland$9.8 billion · 14%
  3. Germany$5.7 billion · 8.1%
  4. Turkey$3.9 billion · 5.5%
  5. United States$3.3 billion · 4.7%
  6. Italy$2.3 billion · 3.3%
  7. Romania$2.1 billion · 2.9%
  8. Hungary$2 billion · 2.8%
  9. Slovakia$1.9 billion · 2.7%
  10. Czechia$1.8 billion · 2.5%

Products with a dominant supplier

Of the 902 products Ukraine buys for more than $1 million in 2024, these are the highest-value ones with a dominant supplier.

ProductSupplierShareSecondValue
Bombs, missiles and ammunitionPoland64.6%Romania · 24.1%$2.9 billion
Video recorders and playersChina78%over 75%Poland · 10.2%$1.8 billion
Cameras and broadcast equipmentChina57.6%Vietnam · 14.2%$1.3 billion
BatteriesChina78.7%over 75%Poland · 4.5%$985 million
Military weaponsPoland79%over 75%United States · 6.3%$718 million
ComputersChina75%over 75%Poland · 5.8%$664 million
Transformers and power suppliesChina64.2%Turkey · 9.2%$608 million
Nuclear reactors and fuelSweden92.6%over 75%Czechia · 3.3%$364 million
Diodes, transistors and solar cellsChina85.3%over 75%Malaysia · 3%$344 million
Electric motors and generatorsChina75.4%over 75%Germany · 4.3%$339 million
Computer and office machine partsChina53%Vietnam · 11.2%$338 million
Citrus fruitTurkey53.7%Egypt · 13.7%$292 million
Other electrical devicesChina54.1%Lithuania · 23.7%$288 million
Other processed tobaccoItaly72.8%Poland · 10.3%$269 million
Hot-rolled flat steelTurkey63.9%China · 9.4%$265 million
Monitors and projectorsChina50.7%Hungary · 11.4%$233 million
Fresh fishNorway85.2%over 75%Turkey · 8.1%$215 million
CokePoland83.4%over 75%Colombia · 8.6%$215 million
ToysChina75.3%over 75%Czechia · 8.1%$195 million
Home appliancesChina62.8%Vietnam · 6.7%$167 million
Air conditionersChina66.8%Moldova · 9.4%$156 million
Synthetic filament fabricChina59.2%Turkey · 12.9%$137 million
Textile footwearChina56.2%Vietnam · 19.8%$137 million
Parts for broadcast equipmentChina55.9%United Kingdom · 5.9%$129 million
Bags, suitcases and casesChina69.9%Poland · 7.3%$128 million

and 267 more

A product has a dominant supplier when a single country sells more than 50% of what is bought of it; we flag it separately above 75%.

Countries that sell more than 50% of some product; the darker, the higher the value of those products.

Selling: who it relies on

Largest customer: Poland
10.3%
Concentration (HHI)
408

Concentration index (HHI): 408 out of 10,000; equivalent to splitting sales among 25 customers of the same size

Trend in shares

Turkey went from 13.3% to 5.2% of what Ukraine sells

Share (%)

  • Poland 10.3%
  • China 6.6%
  • Spain 6.6%
  • Germany 6.6%
  • Turkey 5.2%

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearLargest customerShare
1995Turkey13.3%
1996Russia35.2%
1997Russia23.9%
1998Russia20.4%
1999Russia19.3%
2000Russia22.5%
2001Russia20.2%
2002Russia15.8%
2003Russia16.7%
2004Russia16.3%
2005Russia19.3%
2006Russia20.4%
2007Russia23.2%
2008Russia20.9%
2009Russia19.2%
2010Russia23.4%
2011Russia26.1%
2012Russia23.3%
2013Russia22.3%
2014Russia16.5%
2015Russia11.8%
2016Russia9.2%
2017Russia9.2%
2018Russia8.3%
2019Russia7.1%
2020China13.4%
2021China11.3%
2022Poland13.3%
2023Poland11.7%
2024Poland10.3%

190 of the 589 products Ukraine sells for more than $1 million have a customer buying more than 50% of what Ukraine sells of that product; in 70, more than 75%. In those products, sales to each one’s dominant customer add up to 6.2% of what Ukraine sells.

ProductCustomerShareSecondValue
Pig ironUnited States71.5%Turkey · 8%$525 million
Electric heaters and hair dryersHungary60.3%France · 6.8%$441 million
Soybean oilPoland68.6%Bulgaria · 3.8%$327 million
Natural gas and LPGMoldova95.8%over 75%Hungary · 4.2%$234 million
Alarms, bells and indicator panelsPoland50.6%Spain · 25.1%$182 million
Bombs, missiles and ammunitionRomania94.1%over 75%Poland · 5.3%$108 million
Ferrous scrapPoland75.2%over 75%Greece · 11.6%$97 million
Sports equipmentAustria50.3%Germany · 7.8%$95 million
Particle board and OSBPoland53.4%Moldova · 26.5%$95 million
Cigarettes and cigarsSaudi Arabia65.6%Morocco · 22.3%$92 million
Radioactive elementsCanada97.6%over 75%Switzerland · 2.4%$81 million
Footwear partsRomania59.8%Hungary · 19%$79 million
Furnishing textilesDenmark57.8%United States · 36.5%$71 million
Welded steel pipesPoland59.4%Romania · 20.7%$58 million
Coated flat steelPoland68.4%Romania · 20.7%$54 million

and 175 more

Concentration compared

The closest countries in the concentration ranking (HHI, highest first).

RankCountryHHI
165Malawi797
166Denmark785
167Ukraine785
168Latvia784
169Poland784
170United Arab Emirates781

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

The data come from CEPII BACI (Etalab 2.0 licence), which reconciles what the exporting and the importing country report, in current USD, FOB. Data up to 2024.

Dependence is the share of a country’s imports (or exports) that each partner accounts for. It does not measure whether a product has a substitute or how much it would cost to change supplier.

The concentration index (HHI) adds up the square of each partner’s share, in percent: it runs from 0 to 10,000. Its equivalent is 10,000 ÷ HHI, the number of partners of the same size that would give that value.

Products are HS4 headings of the 1992 nomenclature (some combine different goods), with a floor of $1 million per product and country.

The EU is the 27 current members in every year; the United Kingdom is outside the EU throughout the series.

Re-exports: countries that act as redistribution hubs carry their notice and the figures are not corrected.