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Who does Guatemala rely on?

The largest supplier of Guatemala in 2024 is the United States, with 29.5% of what Guatemala buys. Its share was 36.3% in 2019 and 42% in 1995. 330 of the 775 products Guatemala buys for more than $1 million have a supplier selling more than 50% of what Guatemala buys of that product; in 106, more than 75%. In those products, purchases from each one’s dominant supplier add up to 34.8% of what Guatemala buys.

Summary

Largest supplier: United States
29.5%
Concentration (HHI)
1,421
Products with a supplier above 50%
330
Products with a supplier above 75%
106

Concentration index (HHI): 1,421 out of 10,000; equivalent to splitting purchases among 7 suppliers of the same size

Trend

Trend in shares

China went from 1% to 19.5% of what Guatemala buys

Share (%)

  • United States 29.5%
  • China 19.5%
  • Mexico 10.1%
  • El Salvador 3.8%
  • Costa Rica 3%

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearLargest supplierShare
1995United States42%
1996United States39.7%
1997United States38.8%
1998United States38.2%
1999United States37.6%
2000United States36.8%
2001United States39.1%
2002United States40.4%
2003United States40.6%
2004United States36.5%
2005United States32.6%
2006United States35.5%
2007United States34.3%
2008United States35.9%
2009United States35.4%
2010United States36.3%
2011United States39%
2012United States37.8%
2013United States36.8%
2014United States39.7%
2015United States36.4%
2016United States37.9%
2017United States39.1%
2018United States37.4%
2019United States36.3%
2020United States34.1%
2021United States32.5%
2022United States32.1%
2023United States30%
2024United States29.5%

Its suppliers

  1. United States$9.7 billion · 29.5%
  2. China$6.4 billion · 19.5%
  3. Mexico$3.3 billion · 10.1%
  4. El Salvador$1.2 billion · 3.8%
  5. Costa Rica$995 million · 3%
  6. Japan$889 million · 2.7%
  7. Brazil$766 million · 2.3%
  8. India$751 million · 2.3%
  9. Honduras$704 million · 2.1%
  10. Colombia$618 million · 1.9%

Products with a dominant supplier

Of the 775 products Guatemala buys for more than $1 million in 2024, these are the highest-value ones with a dominant supplier.

ProductSupplierShareSecondValue
Refined petroleumUnited States91.1%over 75%Canada · 2.2%$4 billion
Monitors and projectorsChina50.9%Vietnam · 22.8%$1.1 billion
Natural gas and LPGUnited States90.1%over 75%El Salvador · 9.5%$528 million
CornUnited States58.7%Brazil · 26.5%$512 million
PolyethyleneUnited States71.2%Mexico · 14%$365 million
Kraft paper and paperboardUnited States69.5%Finland · 5.9%$284 million
Soybean meal and pelletsUnited States93.3%over 75%Argentina · 6.1%$280 million
Semi-finished steelIndonesia59.2%China · 34.2%$245 million
CoalColombia83.3%over 75%United States · 16%$232 million
Poultry meatUnited States98.5%over 75%El Salvador · 1%$210 million
Used clothingUnited States97.9%over 75%France · 0.5%$210 million
New tiresChina66.1%India · 6.7%$208 million
Nitrogen fertilizersRussia57%China · 17.6%$191 million
Cameras and broadcast equipmentChina58.4%United States · 18.3%$180 million
Coated flat steelChina53.6%Costa Rica · 16.4%$170 million
CheeseUnited States65.9%El Salvador · 14.5%$152 million
ElectricityMexico83.4%over 75%El Salvador · 12.8%$150 million
Aluminum sheetChina93.2%over 75%South Korea · 3.5%$145 million
Blended cotton yarnCosta Rica53.4%Vietnam · 15.7%$136 million
Polyethers, polyesters and epoxy resinsChina55.3%Mexico · 14.1%$122 million
Steel wire rodChina65.6%Indonesia · 31.9%$122 million
Raw cottonUnited States99.6%over 75%Turkey · 0.29%$118 million
Soybean oilArgentina68.4%Mexico · 24.8%$118 million
ToysChina66.4%United States · 16.7%$114 million
Textile footwearChina65.8%Vietnam · 11.8%$105 million

and 305 more

A product has a dominant supplier when a single country sells more than 50% of what is bought of it; we flag it separately above 75%.

Countries that sell more than 50% of some product; the darker, the higher the value of those products.

Selling: who it relies on

Largest customer: United States
34.1%
Concentration (HHI)
1,482

Concentration index (HHI): 1,482 out of 10,000; equivalent to splitting sales among 7 customers of the same size

Trend in shares

The United States went from 42.2% to 34.1% of what Guatemala sells

Share (%)

  • United States 34.1%
  • El Salvador 10.9%
  • Honduras 8.6%
  • Nicaragua 6.5%
  • Mexico 4.8%

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearLargest customerShare
1995United States42.2%
1996United States45.6%
1997United States45.6%
1998United States43.7%
1999United States47.1%
2000United States47.9%
2001United States46.5%
2002United States50.2%
2003United States50.1%
2004United States49%
2005United States49.2%
2006United States45%
2007United States41.3%
2008United States40.6%
2009United States40.6%
2010United States40.1%
2011United States44.9%
2012United States43.4%
2013United States39.5%
2014United States37.4%
2015United States36.4%
2016United States36.4%
2017United States35%
2018United States37.8%
2019United States35.1%
2020United States33.6%
2021United States34.5%
2022United States33%
2023United States33.2%
2024United States34.1%

186 of the 412 products Guatemala sells for more than $1 million have a customer buying more than 50% of what Guatemala sells of that product; in 75, more than 75%. In those products, sales to each one’s dominant customer add up to 31.9% of what Guatemala sells.

ProductCustomerShareSecondValue
BananasUnited States73.7%Canada · 11.4%$1.6 billion
Sweaters and pulloversUnited States89.9%over 75%Canada · 4%$538 million
T-shirtsUnited States86.3%over 75%Canada · 3.4%$459 million
Melons, watermelons and papayasUnited States87.1%over 75%Canada · 11%$369 million
Women's knitted blousesUnited States96%over 75%Canada · 1%$245 million
Other knitted fabricNicaragua67.2%El Salvador · 28.5%$224 million
Fresh legumes (peas and beans)United States86%over 75%Canada · 6.8%$180 million
Men's knitted shirtsUnited States78.9%over 75%Honduras · 8.1%$164 million
Steel barsHonduras59.9%El Salvador · 26.7%$102 million
Natural gas and LPGEl Salvador62.1%Honduras · 20.2%$93 million
Industrial fatty acids and oilsColombia57.8%Costa Rica · 8.7%$91 million
Frozen fruitUnited States84.7%over 75%Canada · 8.8%$91 million
Plain frozen vegetablesUnited States93%over 75%Japan · 1.4%$80 million
Crude petroleumUnited States99.7%over 75%Belize · 0.31%$78 million
Coconut and palm kernel oilNetherlands68.8%Mexico · 12.8%$73 million

and 171 more

Concentration compared

The closest countries in the concentration ranking (HHI, highest first).

RankCountryHHI
88Kiribati1,438
89Uzbekistan1,434
90Guatemala1,421
91Guyana1,412
92Luxembourg1,402
93British Virgin Islands1,401

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

The data come from CEPII BACI (Etalab 2.0 licence), which reconciles what the exporting and the importing country report, in current USD, FOB. Data up to 2024.

Dependence is the share of a country’s imports (or exports) that each partner accounts for. It does not measure whether a product has a substitute or how much it would cost to change supplier.

The concentration index (HHI) adds up the square of each partner’s share, in percent: it runs from 0 to 10,000. Its equivalent is 10,000 ÷ HHI, the number of partners of the same size that would give that value.

Products are HS4 headings of the 1992 nomenclature (some combine different goods), with a floor of $1 million per product and country.

The EU is the 27 current members in every year; the United Kingdom is outside the EU throughout the series.

Re-exports: countries that act as redistribution hubs carry their notice and the figures are not corrected.