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How much of South Africa’s trade passes through the Strait of Dover?

In 2024, an estimated $24 billion of South Africa’s trade passed through the Strait of Dover, 15.6% of its seaborne trade. That is $13.8 billion of exports and $10.2 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium.

Summary

Estimated value
$24billion
Of its seaborne trade
15.6%
Exports
$13.8billion
Imports
$10.2billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

South Africa’s estimated trade through the Strait of Dover rose 2% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • South Africa 24

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$8.5 billion20.2%
1996$8.1 billion18.8%
1997$8 billion19.4%
1998$8.2 billion20.7%
1999$8.9 billion20.5%
2000$8.1 billion19.2%
2001$8.4 billion19.1%
2002$8.5 billion19.5%
2003$10.2 billion18.9%
2004$12.7 billion18.3%
2005$15.1 billion18.7%
2006$18.4 billion18.9%
2007$20.3 billion18.1%
2008$23.5 billion17.9%
2009$16.8 billion17.6%
2010$19.6 billion16.6%
2011$22.3 billion15.4%
2012$21 billion14.9%
2013$21.3 billion15%
2014$20.2 billion14.4%
2015$18.8 billion15.3%
2016$18.5 billion16.9%
2017$20.8 billion16.2%
2018$22.8 billion16.5%
2019$23.4 billion18%
2020$18.6 billion17.5%
2021$23.5 billion17%
2022$27.7 billion16.5%
2023$25.9 billion16.3%
2024$24 billion15.6%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. South Africa–Germany$11.4 billion · 47.6%
  2. South Africa–Netherlands$4 billion · 16.8%
  3. South Africa–Belgium$2.8 billion · 11.5%
  4. South Africa–Poland$1.3 billion · 5.4%
  5. South Africa–Sweden$841 million · 3.5%
  6. South Africa–Switzerland$714 million · 3%
  7. South Africa–Czechia$638 million · 2.7%
  8. South Africa–Finland$465 million · 1.9%
  9. South Africa–Norway$411 million · 1.7%
  10. South Africa–Russia$341 million · 1.4%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Cars$4.4 billion · 18.2%
  2. Trucks$1.9 billion · 8%
  3. Iron ore$955 million · 4%
  4. Auto parts$847 million · 3.5%
  5. Refined petroleum$669 million · 2.8%
  6. Citrus fruit$668 million · 2.8%
  7. Grapes$550 million · 2.3%
  8. Ferroalloys$473 million · 2%
  9. Unwrought aluminum$342 million · 1.4%
  10. Coal$339 million · 1.4%

Reference ports

Durban (80%) and Cape Town (20%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints