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How much of South Africa’s trade passes through the Cape of Good Hope?

In 2024, an estimated $47.3 billion of South Africa’s trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 30.7% of its seaborne trade. That is $25.9 billion of exports and $21.3 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Summary

Estimated value
$47.3billion
Of its seaborne trade
30.7%
Exports
$25.9billion
Imports
$21.3billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

South Africa’s estimated trade through the Cape of Good Hope rose 19% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • South Africa 47.3

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$17 billion40.3%
1996$17.1 billion39.5%
1997$17 billion41.2%
1998$17.2 billion43.3%
1999$17.4 billion40.2%
2000$15.7 billion37%
2001$17.7 billion40.3%
2002$17.7 billion40.3%
2003$20.2 billion37.6%
2004$25.8 billion37%
2005$29.4 billion36.2%
2006$34.9 billion36%
2007$39.5 billion35.2%
2008$46.2 billion35.1%
2009$32.9 billion34.5%
2010$37.3 billion31.6%
2011$44.4 billion30.7%
2012$44.1 billion31.2%
2013$43.2 billion30.5%
2014$43.5 billion31%
2015$36.8 billion29.8%
2016$33.5 billion30.8%
2017$38.8 billion30.1%
2018$41.9 billion30.3%
2019$39.8 billion30.5%
2020$31 billion29.1%
2021$39.1 billion28.3%
2022$45.7 billion27.1%
2023$43.5 billion27.4%
2024$47.3 billion30.7%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. South Africa–Germany$8.5 billion · 18%
  2. South Africa–United States$6.9 billion · 14.6%
  3. South Africa–United Kingdom$3.3 billion · 7%
  4. South Africa–Netherlands$3 billion · 6.3%
  5. South Africa–Nigeria$2.2 billion · 4.6%
  6. South Africa–Belgium$2.1 billion · 4.4%
  7. South Africa–Italy$1.9 billion · 4%
  8. South Africa–Spain$1.8 billion · 3.8%
  9. South Africa–France$1.7 billion · 3.6%
  10. South Africa–Brazil$1.3 billion · 2.7%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Cars$7.1 billion · 15.1%
  2. Crude petroleum$3.2 billion · 6.9%
  3. Trucks$2.7 billion · 5.8%
  4. Refined petroleum$1.4 billion · 3%
  5. Unwrought aluminum$1.2 billion · 2.5%
  6. Citrus fruit$1.2 billion · 2.5%
  7. Auto parts$1.1 billion · 2.4%
  8. Iron ore$961 million · 2%
  9. Ferroalloys$851 million · 1.8%
  10. Grapes$761 million · 1.6%

Reference ports

Durban (80%) and Cape Town (20%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints