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How much of Kenya’s trade passes through the Cape of Good Hope?

In 2024, an estimated $5.7 billion of Kenya’s trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 22.2% of its seaborne trade. That is $2.8 billion of exports and $2.9 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Summary

Estimated value
$5.7billion
Of its seaborne trade
22.2%
Exports
$2.8billion
Imports
$2.9billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

Kenya’s estimated trade through the Cape of Good Hope rose 1,092% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Kenya 5.7

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$88 million2.6%
1996$36 million1.1%
1997$95 million2.1%
1998$137 million3%
1999$88 million2.2%
2000$105 million2.5%
2001$134 million2.7%
2002$94 million2.3%
2003$136 million2.5%
2004$226 million4.3%
2005$309 million3.9%
2006$233 million2.5%
2007$333 million3%
2008$413 million2.8%
2009$329 million2.6%
2010$321 million2.2%
2011$227 million1.6%
2012$229 million1.3%
2013$390 million2%
2014$85 million0.4%
2015$353 million1.8%
2016$305 million1.7%
2017$570 million2.8%
2018$410 million1.9%
2019$476 million2.3%
2020$417 million2.1%
2021$505 million2.2%
2022$647 million2.5%
2023$580 million2.4%
2024$5.7 billion22.2%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. Kenya–United States$818 million · 14.4%
  2. Kenya–Netherlands$803 million · 14.1%
  3. Kenya–United Kingdom$657 million · 11.6%
  4. Kenya–Russia$396 million · 7%
  5. Kenya–Egypt$383 million · 6.7%
  6. Kenya–Germany$340 million · 6%
  7. Kenya–Democratic Republic of the Congo$259 million · 4.6%
  8. Kenya–Belgium$250 million · 4.4%
  9. Kenya–Turkey$230 million · 4.1%
  10. Kenya–France$214 million · 3.8%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Cut flowers$602 million · 10.6%
  2. Refined petroleum$486 million · 8.6%
  3. Tea$401 million · 7.1%
  4. Wheat$394 million · 6.9%
  5. Natural gas and LPG$196 million · 3.4%
  6. Coffee$190 million · 3.4%
  7. Avocados, mangoes, pineapples and dates$189 million · 3.3%
  8. Men's suits and trousers$100 million · 1.8%
  9. Mixed fertilizers$96 million · 1.7%
  10. Sweaters and pullovers$69 million · 1.2%

Reference ports

Mombasa (100%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints