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How much of Japan’s trade passes through the Cape of Good Hope?

In 2024, an estimated $102.8 billion of Japan’s trade passed through the Cape of Good Hope, 11.1% of its seaborne trade. That is $60.9 billion of exports and $41.9 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are Germany, Brazil and the United Kingdom.

Summary

Estimated value
$102.8billion
Of its seaborne trade
11.1%
Exports
$60.9billion
Imports
$41.9billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

Japan’s estimated trade through the Cape of Good Hope rose 522% between 2019 and 2024

Value in USD billions

  • Japan 103

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$8.5 billion1.8%
1996$7.6 billion1.7%
1997$8.2 billion1.7%
1998$8.1 billion1.9%
1999$6.9 billion1.6%
2000$6.7 billion1.3%
2001$6.5 billion1.4%
2002$7.3 billion1.5%
2003$7.4 billion1.4%
2004$9.8 billion1.5%
2005$10.4 billion1.5%
2006$12.7 billion1.6%
2007$14.6 billion1.6%
2008$21.8 billion2%
2009$14.4 billion1.9%
2010$19.7 billion2%
2011$27 billion2.4%
2012$31 billion2.7%
2013$27.9 billion2.6%
2014$24.1 billion2.3%
2015$18.1 billion2.2%
2016$14.2 billion1.7%
2017$14.1 billion1.6%
2018$15.3 billion1.6%
2019$16.5 billion1.8%
2020$14.7 billion1.9%
2021$17.3 billion1.8%
2022$20.4 billion1.9%
2023$19.9 billion2%
2024$102.8 billion11.1%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. Japan–Germany$13.9 billion · 13.5%
  2. Japan–Brazil$11.4 billion · 11.1%
  3. Japan–United Kingdom$8 billion · 7.8%
  4. Japan–Belgium$6.6 billion · 6.5%
  5. Japan–France$6.5 billion · 6.4%
  6. Japan–Italy$5.5 billion · 5.3%
  7. Japan–Spain$5.1 billion · 4.9%
  8. Japan–Netherlands$4.8 billion · 4.7%
  9. Japan–Russia$4.3 billion · 4.2%
  10. Japan–Poland$3.6 billion · 3.5%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Cars$29.8 billion · 29%
  2. Auto parts$5.3 billion · 5.2%
  3. Natural gas and LPG$2.9 billion · 2.8%
  4. Iron ore$2.6 billion · 2.5%
  5. Bulldozers and excavators$2.2 billion · 2.2%
  6. Motorcycles$1.8 billion · 1.7%
  7. Pork$1.3 billion · 1.2%
  8. New tires$1.2 billion · 1.2%
  9. Wine$1.1 billion · 1.1%
  10. Diesel engines$1 billion · 1%

Reference ports

Yokohama (100%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

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