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How much of Ukraine’s trade passes through the Strait of Dover?

In 2024, an estimated $23.2 billion of Ukraine’s trade passed through the Strait of Dover, 28% of its seaborne trade. That is $11.2 billion of exports and $12 billion of imports. The partners with the most trade through it are Germany, Poland and the Netherlands.

Summary

Estimated value
$23.2billion
Of its seaborne trade
28%
Exports
$11.2billion
Imports
$12billion

Trend

Estimated value per year

Ukraine’s estimated trade through the Strait of Dover in 2024 was about the same as in 2019

Value in USD billions

  • Ukraine 23.2

Source: CEPII BACI

Show the numbers
YearEstimated valueOf its seaborne trade
1995$3 billion34.4%
1996$5.1 billion27.5%
1997$5.1 billion26.6%
1998$5 billion28.8%
1999$3.9 billion25.8%
2000$5 billion25.7%
2001$5.4 billion24.3%
2002$6.1 billion24.7%
2003$8.8 billion27.1%
2004$10.5 billion25%
2005$11.3 billion23.1%
2006$14 billion24.2%
2007$17.6 billion23.3%
2008$21.5 billion20.5%
2009$13.3 billion22.7%
2010$17.2 billion23.8%
2011$20.8 billion22.8%
2012$21 billion21.9%
2013$20.5 billion23.2%
2014$18.1 billion23.8%
2015$15 billion25.8%
2016$15.5 billion25.8%
2017$20.5 billion28.5%
2018$22.9 billion28%
2019$23.4 billion26.8%
2020$19.4 billion24.4%
2021$25.8 billion24.6%
2022$21.8 billion29.4%
2023$22.3 billion29.4%
2024$23.2 billion28%

Partners whose trade crosses it

Estimated value of its trade with each partner that crosses the chokepoint; the percentage is the share of all its trade through the chokepoint, not of the pair’s trade.

  1. Ukraine–Germany$7.2 billion · 30.8%
  2. Ukraine–Poland$4.8 billion · 20.7%
  3. Ukraine–Netherlands$2.9 billion · 12.4%
  4. Ukraine–Czechia$2.4 billion · 10.1%
  5. Ukraine–Lithuania$1.7 billion · 7.3%
  6. Ukraine–Belgium$1.4 billion · 6%
  7. Ukraine–Sweden$596 million · 2.6%
  8. Ukraine–Norway$561 million · 2.4%
  9. Ukraine–Denmark$451 million · 1.9%
  10. Ukraine–Latvia$389 million · 1.7%

What crosses it

The products with the highest estimated value in 2024, with their share of the total through the chokepoint.

  1. Refined petroleum$2.1 billion · 8.9%
  2. Rapeseed (canola)$1.5 billion · 6.4%
  3. Cars$1 billion · 4.5%
  4. Sunflower, safflower and cottonseed oil$950 million · 4.1%
  5. Iron ore$896 million · 3.9%
  6. Cables and wire$762 million · 3.3%
  7. Corn$761 million · 3.3%
  8. Soybeans$369 million · 1.6%
  9. Hot-rolled flat steel$334 million · 1.4%
  10. Tractors$324 million · 1.4%

Reference ports

Odesa (100%)

Each port with the weight it receives from the country’s trade, based on where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest.

Other chokepoints it uses

Sources and method

Sources and licenses

Methodology

We estimate the value crossing each chokepoint from BACI trade that travels by sea according to our mode heuristic, split between each country’s ports by where its GDP is generated and which coast is closest, and routed over our own sea network. It is an estimate, not a count of ships. It covers 99.9% of seaborne trade. The approach follows Verschuur, Lumma and Hall (Nature Communications, 2025). Data up to 2024.

All maritime chokepoints